InwySeleneYoung markets: their first 48 hours, when the launch crowd buys. From Nov 2, all Protocol V2.
$500.00
+0.0%+$0.00on the $500 start
Where it is
Done bets
0 settled
None settled yet.
Tide 4 · 18:46
Next tide
Pace, averaged since the start
Tide 4 $500.00
0long shots hit per 100 bets
The scale appears with the first settled bets · 17 waiting to settle.
Lunation 1
day 1 of 29.5 · 0% · new moon Fri 20 Nov
No fills yet. Quotes are resting.
Nothing closed yet.
Fast · something broken right now · hours
Picked off 0 of 0
last 5 fills (48h) with a 1h markout ≥ +5¢; by chance: 2 of 5 ≈ 2.6%, 3 of 5 ≈ 0.25%
Fill burst 0 this run
usual 0.2/run over 7 days; chance of ≥ 0: 100.0%
Correlated shock 0 of 0
open bets with Yes up ≥ 5¢ in the last hour (heuristic)
Loss cluster 0 of 0
nothing resolved in 24h
Operations 1.0h gap · 0 errors
previous run 1.0h ago
Drawdown from peak −0%
$500 vs peak $500; normal worst patch −23 to −29% over 6 months (§16)
· is the edge still there · days to weeks
Since 21 Oct, 16:30 · The god whose crowds fall into panic: the launch rush of brand-new markets.
Sells “Yes” at 5–20¢, one tick under the ask, only in markets created less than 48 hours ago (not recurring), ending within 45 days. Held to resolution, youngest first. From 2 Nov every new market is on Polymarket's V2 contracts, where some market makers will lag.
WhyHistory (§22): young markets beat older ones in 3 of 4 periods (failed one). A candidate.
CheckOne look on 6 Dec, on every market its rules quoted (filled by 22 Nov, ending by 6 Dec): confirmed at ≥ 200 bets with t ≥ 2, promising at t ≥ 1, else dropped.
Paper money on live Polymarket data; fills simulated from real trades behind the queue. Makers pay no fees; rebates ignored. Record of every fill and resolution: bot/polymarket/journal/. Times are Paris time.
Edge score 1.0:1 for no edge
0 resolved, 0 lost; since Pan; a verdict needs ~100 (§35)
Return per closed bet –
0 closed bets since Pan
Markout trend –
0 fills; research −1.3 to −0.1¢ (heuristic thresholds +1.5¢ / +3¢)
Locked capital 0% of equity
0 open bets > 3 days past their end date; held, not sold (buying back costs more, §19)
Hold when drawdown, picked off or edge score turns red, or any 2 reds. Send /hold or /resume to the Telegram bot. A single amber is normal noise; slow-lane verdicts need ~200 resolved bets.