InwySeleneSlow narrative markets: politics, culture, tech, economy; 7–45 days; held to resolution.
$501.87
+0.4%+$1.87on the $500 start
Where it is
Done bets
0 settled
None settled yet.
Tide 4 · 18:46
Next tide
Pace, averaged since the start
Tide 4 $500.00 → heading $501.87 +$1.87
0long shots hit per 100 bets
The scale appears with the first settled bets · 41 waiting to settle.
Lunation 1
day 1 of 29.5 · 0% · new moon Fri 20 Nov
When the 1 undecided bets settle, the wallet ends up at
likely $488 to $502all pay $502all fail $48813% of 5,000 simulated endings finish below the $500 start
| Market | Sold Yes at | Yes now | Heading toHeading to · ends | Ends in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running · 1 · colour and amount follow the likelier outcome; the % is how sure the market is · market value −$0.07 | ||||
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? risk $12.50 at 13.0¢ · filled 21 Oct, 18:32 | 13.5¢ ▲ 0.5¢ | +$1.87 87% sure · else −$12.50 29 Oct | ||
Nothing closed yet.
Fast · something broken right now · hours
Picked off 0 of 0
last 5 fills (48h) with a 1h markout ≥ +5¢; by chance: 2 of 5 ≈ 2.6%, 3 of 5 ≈ 0.25%
Fill burst 1 this run
usual 0.5/run over 7 days; chance of ≥ 1: 39.3%
Correlated shock 0 of 1
open bets with Yes up ≥ 5¢ in the last hour (heuristic)
Loss cluster 0 of 0
nothing resolved in 24h
Operations 1.0h gap · 0 errors
previous run 1.0h ago
Drawdown from peak −0%
$500 vs peak $500; normal worst patch −23 to −29% over 6 months (§16)
· is the edge still there · days to weeks
Since 21 Oct, 16:30 · The Titans were the old gods of time: the slow, patient moon.
Sells “Yes” at 5–20¢, one tick under the ask, in markets ending in 7 to 45 days that are neither sports nor recurring (daily prices, temperatures, post counts). No other filter. Held to resolution, soonest end first when money is short. 2.5% of equity per position, same caps as Luna.
WhyHistory (§35.1): +1.0 / +1.0 / +3.1 / +2.1% per bet in four periods, Yes 0.78–0.93× implied.
CheckOne look on 6 Dec, on every market its rules quoted (filled by 22 Nov, ending by 6 Dec): confirmed at ≥ 200 bets with t ≥ 2, promising at t ≥ 1, else dropped.
Paper money on live Polymarket data; fills simulated from real trades behind the queue. Makers pay no fees; rebates ignored. Record of every fill and resolution: bot/polymarket/journal/. Times are Paris time.
Edge score 1.0:1 for no edge
0 resolved, 0 lost; since Titan; a verdict needs ~100 (§35)
Return per closed bet –
0 closed bets since Titan
Markout trend –
0 fills; research −1.3 to −0.1¢ (heuristic thresholds +1.5¢ / +3¢)
Locked capital 0% of equity
0 open bets > 3 days past their end date; held, not sold (buying back costs more, §19)
Hold when drawdown, picked off or edge score turns red, or any 2 reds. Send /hold or /resume to the Telegram bot. A single amber is normal noise; slow-lane verdicts need ~200 resolved bets.